Sunday, November 29, 2015

Prepare to Lose, Trade to Win

(I thought I’d end the year with this classic. Hope you have a great year ahead of you!)

We’ve all gotten our hearts broken at some point. And no, I’m not just talking about getting dumped by your high school sweetheart. The forex market also has its own way of making you cry yourself to sleep, leaving you broken and feeling helpless.



Sure, you might say that you’ve stopped binging on chocolates and that you’re already over it. But have you found yourself not pulling the trigger on a setup because it reminded you of a supposed “Trade of the Year” that didn’t go your way?

Have you recently experienced a big loss or a series of losses that dealt you a big emotional blow? Do you often get emotionally rocked by what you feel should be normal trading stress? Are you unable to break bad habits, even though you are aware of them?

If you answered “yes” to these questions, then you may be suffering from emotional trauma.

Emotional trauma usually occurs when we experience a threat to our safety and security. Although it helps us keep ourselves from repeating the same mistakes, it can also be paralyzing for a trader. It can lead to the creation of bad habits detrimental not only to our psychology, but also to our trading accounts.

So how do you prevent emotional trauma?

First of all, you have to practice sound risk management.

For traders, traumatic experiences often arise from poor risk management. Trading large positions, using ill-placed stop losses, and being overly aggressive can threaten one’s account, and therefore, one’s sense of financial security.

Getting stopped out when your stop loss was properly placed and risk-adjusted shouldn’t be traumatic because losses are inevitable. However, choosing not to use a stop and losing half your account for it will definitely give you nightmares.

Secondly, you must prepare for the worst but plan for the best.

Prepare to take hits.

Take after 8-division world champion and pound-for-pound best boxer, Manny Pacquiao. He goes through a grueling 8-week training camp for each of his fights, which includes an an unusual practice of asking his trainers to strike his muscles with a hard stick.

This drill toughens his body and prepares his mind for blows he may take come fight night. He prepares himself to take hits, but always fights to win.

It’s all about mental preparation. If you set your mind to accept hits and blows, then almost nothing will jar your focus. But remember, though we mentally prepare ourselves for the possibility of a loss, we must NEVER lose sight of and always work towards our ultimate goal – to win!

In other words, we must prepare to lose, but always trade to win.

Saturday, November 7, 2015

Strong Jobs Data Push Greenback Through Key Chart Points



The US jobs data was considerably stronger than expected and leave no doubt about the December meeting being live despite the year-end considerations that some had seen tying the Fed’s hands. The dollar broke through key chart points near JPY122 and $1.08 for the euro. 

Nonfarm payrolls leapt 271k, nearly 100k more than the consensus anticipated.  The August and September job growth was revised higher by a minor 12k.  September was actually revised down by 5k, with August being revised up 17k. 

The unemployment rate slipped to 5.0% while the participation rate was unchanged at 62.4%.  The underemployment rate fell to 9.8%.  It is the first sub-10% print since before the Great Financial Crisis.  The 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings was twice the expected increase and lifts the year-over-year rate to 2.5%, a new cyclical high. 

Private sector payrolls added 268k jobs. The 3k increase in government workers was the least in several months.  Over the July-September period, the government add an average of 29k a month. 
It is difficult to find the cloud in the silver lining as economists are often wont to do.  Even the household survey, which sometimes is not consistent with the establishment survey, saw a 320k increase in jobs, offsetting in full the 236k decline in September.  Manufacturing employment that had fallen for two consecutive months was flat, which compares to expectations of a 5k decline, and weakness of the ADP survey and soft manufacturing ISM employment. 

US interest rates have moved sharply higher response to the jobs data.  The 10-year yield is near 2.30% (+7 bp), and the 2-year is near 92 bp (+9 bp).  The implied yield on the December Fed funds futures has pushed 2 bp higher.    

Canadian jobs data were also better than expected.  It grew 44.4k jobs compared with a consensus estimate of 10k.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 7.0% even though the participation rate rose to 66.0% from 65.9%.  The consensus had expected a decline in the participation rate.  Full-time jobs grew by a lesser 9k after a nearly 62k loss in September.  Despite the local data, the Canadian dollar is being overwhelmed by the surging greenback. 


The divergence theme was underscored this week, and the US jobs data keep it central to the investment climate.   A dovish Draghi, coupled with unexpected declines in German factory orders and industrial output, keeps open the possibility that the Federal Reserve and ECB move in opposite directions next month.  The Bank of England was also more dovish than expected, making sterling one of the weakest currencies in recent days.  

Sunday, November 1, 2015

Why You Should Be Aware of Changing Forex Market Themes

It is often said that success comes to those who embrace change. Successful businessmen, for example, create new products and services that cater to the ever-changing demands of customers.

forex market themesThe age-old saying, “The only thing constant in life is change,” isn’t any less true in trading. Of course, adapting to change isn’t easy, but as a forex trader, your job is to be flexible. One distinguishing trait I’ve noticed among successful traders is their ability to figure out market themes by synthesizing patterns from different assets and time frames.



For instance, just because you only trade forex doesn’t mean you don’t have to keep tabs in other financial markets. We’ve learned from the Intermarket Correlations section of the School of Pipsology that currencies also share relationships with commodities, bonds, and stock indices.

Now, think of themes as theories that traders create to make sense of what’s going on in the markets. But of course, a theory can only be good if it truly captures trends in the market. If it is based merely on one’s biases, then you might as well be trading with your eyes closed.

How can we, as traders, discover market themes?

The first step is gathering data. Before you even THINK of putting a trade on, read up on what is happening in the economic landscape. There are many ways to do this such as reading major news websites or reading up on Pip Diddy’s Top Market Movers blog post at the end of each week.

Follow this up by looking at the most recently released important economic reports. Check whether they impressed or disappointed and if/how they affected market sentiment. Ask yourself questions like “How did the market react?”, “Is the market bullish?”, and “Is the market bearish?”

After investigating the fundamental background and market sentiment, you can move on to the technical aspect to find a valid forex setup that supports your biases. Look for patterns, trends, and indicator changes which hint that price may move with the market theme.

Discovering market themes is about combining all of the key data points and turning it into a workable trading framework. It’s like putting together a jigsaw puzzle from scratch: you begin with the edges and slowly build up the middle to form a complete picture.

For example, a news report from the U.S. comes out better than expected, and the stock market soars but the dollar ends up getting sold-off. This can be a sign that the market is extremely bullish and hungry for risk. Using this information, you look for a technical swing setup that enables you to sell the U.S. dollar versus high-yielding currencies, like the Australian dollar, at an appropriate price.

Some of you are probably saying that this only applies to those who prefer to trade higher time frames. However, as a scalper or day trader, knowing what the expectation is for a particular economic report could also work to your advantage.

As with most things related to becoming a better trader, learning how to properly decipher the market theme is difficult. It requires patience, time, and hard work. But the fact is, properly identifying market themes is very important in trading.

The clearer the overall market picture is, the easier it is for you to determine whether the trade is truly going in your favor or it is simply faking you out. Also, more than simply going with where the market is taking you, having a set market theme allows you to ANTICIPATE the direction to which it is headed. Now wouldn’t you want to be capable of that in this volatile market environment?